It Could Be Much Worse

An accurate prediction of COVID-19 deaths are still elusive.  Nobody seems to know for sure what the mortality rate actually is.  Although, most are sure that China lied.  I personally, going off of numbers I crunched back on March 20th, predict 282 million deaths globally, 1.8 million Canadian & 14.1 million US deaths, 1 504 deaths in the city of Stratford, and 18 people at Aisin where I work.  My earlier numbers of 120 million global deaths were based on the faulty numbers (2%) coming out of China.

Still, it will change our lives forever.  It is a major historical event.  (We were so arrogant and naive).  Coming out the other end of this, the economy may not recover in our lifetime, plunging us into a great depression.  With all the negatives that brings with it, possible social safety net failure, massive job losses, food shortages, home losses, and starvation to name but a few, it may not be pretty.  I didn't mention war.

That being said, it could be a lot worse.  At this point, it doesn't look like we're staring the collapse of society in the face.  Although, as I thought about this last night, I compared it to trying to keep a camp fire going in the rain.  It's a fickle thing; a strong wind and, it is all over.  Also, the virus could be a lot worse, and still may be.

There's supposed to be eight strains and there is the rumour of possible reinfectuon.  Also, there is a horrifying rumour that there is a second virus, coming out of Wuhan, with an eight week incubation period and being deadlier, carried by rodents.  Sound familiar?  God help us if that turns out to be true; Corona virus will just be the set up for the knock out punch.

All this is highly stressful and very surreal.  There are deniers everywhere, as well as religious individuals being negligent; God forgive them.  They are saying that if it's your time, it's your time, and nonchalantly putting others at risk.  Not just by spreading the infection, but by taking up hospital beds, they risk overwhelming the medical system.  We are trying to "flatten the curve", stopping the number of critically ill from surpassing the number of hospital beds and ventilators available.  But deniers are not the only problem.

There are those who are indifferent, for whatever reason, and the selfish and food/supplies horders.  There are the panicked, unable to function.  They become a burden on others.  It seems that we are being stratified by this pandemic.

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